AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven

According to the latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" released on 8 October, merchandise trade volume is now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, up from the March forecast of 1.9%, before increasing further to 4.1% in 2027 (see Chart 1). The revision reflects evidence that global supply chains adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, while strong investment in AI-related infrastructure boosted trade in AI-enabling goods. Commercial services trade growth is expected to remain positive, although prospects have moderated due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on transport and international travel. Services trade volume is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, down from 4.8% in the March forecast, before rising by 6.4% in 2027. 

Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "The numbers reflect trade resilience in action. When disruptions strike, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system provide economies flexibility to keep essential products flowing to businesses and households that need them. Nevertheless, some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI. It is essential to ensure that the rules-based trading system continues to absorb shocks and bridge gaps so that opportunities are open to all."

Growth drivers in the first half of 2026

Merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5% in the first half of 2026, exceeding expectations despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict. The performance reflected the ability of supply chains to adapt to shocks affecting energy, fertilizer and transport markets. Although crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by roughly 24% and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 47% in the first half of 2026, increased shipments from other suppliers helped limit the decline in global exports to around 6% for crude oil and just 1% for LNG. Fertilizer markets also adjusted despite severe disruption, with global imports of nitrogenous fertilizers only 2.8% below recent averages and phosphatic fertilizer imports 2.2% higher as alternative suppliers stepped in. Meanwhile, trade flows were rerouted through alternative ports and corridors. Global container throughput remained resilient, rising 3.9% year-to-date through July.

Strong demand linked to AI investment more than offset the negative effects of the conflict in the Middle East. Demand for AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and trade in these products rose by 67% year-on-year, accelerating from the already rapid expansion seen in 2024 and 2025.

Commercial services trade grew by 14% year-on-year in value terms in the first quarter of 2026 and 10% in the second quarter. Growth slowed in the second quarter as the Middle East conflict disrupted transport and travel services, two sectors that depend heavily on the region's role as a global hub. Transport services were affected by the reorganization of shipping routes and sharply higher freight costs. Travellers' expenditure abroad increased by just 5% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 15% in the first quarter. International tourist arrivals fell by 0.8% in the second quarter and were only 0.4% higher in the first half of the year overall according to data from the  United Nations World Tourism Organization, reflecting a contraction in international tourist arrivals.

Despite these headwinds, other commercial services, particularly digitally delivered services, remained comparatively resilient and continued to support overall services trade growth. Computer services exports, one of the fastest-growing segments of services trade, rose by 18% year-on-year in the first quarter and an estimated 12% in the second quarter, helping to offset weakness in transport and travel services. Financial services exports likewise grew, by 14% year-on-year in the second quarter.

The report includes an analytical chapter on trade in AI-enabling goods, examining how the AI investment boom is reshaping global trade patterns, regional specialization and the geography of demand and supply.

Merchandise trade projections

Given stronger-than-expected merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, WTO economists now expect world merchandise trade volume to increase by 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, while global GDP growth is forecast at 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively (see Table 1).

AI-related investment is expected to remain a major driver of merchandise trade through 2027. Global AI infrastructure spending is projected to increase by at least 30% in 2026. Current market projections suggest AI capital expenditure will continue to rise by a further 10-20% in 2027. The conflict in the Middle East is expected to weigh on trade in 2026 through higher energy prices and disruptions to transport routes.

Regional trade prospects remain uneven. In 2026, Asia is expected to record the fastest merchandise export growth (9.9%), followed by North America (5.7%), Africa (5.6%) and South America (3.4%). Export performance is projected to remain weak in Europe (-0.1%) and to contract sharply in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (-3.9%) and the Middle East (-17.2%), reflecting the impact of the ongoing conflict and associated disruptions to trade flows. On the import side, Asia (9.5%), Africa (8.9%) and the CIS (8.8%) are expected to post the strongest growth, while North America (1.4%) and Europe (0.5%) are likely to see only modest increases and the Middle East is forecast to record a steep decline (-15.4%). 

Commercial services trade projections

The outlook for commercial services trade has weakened since the March forecast as the conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt transport and travel services. WTO economists now expect commercial services trade volume to grow by 3.3% in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 4.8%, before rebounding to 6.4% in 2027 (see Table 2). Transport and travel are expected to record only modest growth this year, reflecting higher energy costs, disruptions to shipping and aviation routes, and reduced international travel demand. By contrast, other commercial services, including digitally delivered services, are expected to remain more resilient and continue supporting overall services trade growth.

Regional prospects for services trade vary considerably. Europe is expected to record the fastest growth in services exports in 2026 at 4.6%, followed by Asia at 4.0% and Africa at 3.1%. Growth is forecast to be more subdued in North America and the CIS, both at 1.7%, and in South and Central America and the Caribbean at 1.3%, while services exports from the Middle East are projected to contract by 10.3% as a result of the ongoing conflict. Europe is expected to account for more than half of global services export growth this year, helping offset weaker contributions from Asia, North America and the Middle East.

The full report is available here.

Detailed annual, quarterly and monthly trade statistics can be downloaded from the WTO Stats portal. Interactive user-friendly tools are also available for a more in-depth look at the data: WTO World Trade Statistics Key Insights and Trends in 2025 and WTO Global Services Trade Data Hub.

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